2009 America East Conference Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/05/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There are nine members of the America East Conference, and all nine are set to participate in the 30th-annual America East Conference Tournament. The prize awarded to the winner of this event is a bid to the NCAA Tournament, and considering the fact that a team from this league is highly unlikely to ever earn an at-large dance ticket, this four-day event figures to pulsate with intensity.

Boston University has five AEC titles to its credit and a 38-24 all-time record at this event, but the Terriers, who are seeded third this season, haven't won this tourney since 2002. Vermont has captured three championships, and the second-seeded Catamounts figure to have a good shot at adding to the total. Albany is seeded seventh, so the odds of the club winning this event for a third time seem unlikely. As for UMBC, the defending champion, it is seeded sixth. The top seed is Binghamton, which is one of five league members never to win this tournament.

After the first round, quarterfinal round and semifinal round are played in consecutive days from Friday the 6th through Sunday the 8th, the championship game will not take place until Saturday the 14th, adding to the drama. While the first three rounds will take place at SEFCU Arena in Albany, New York, the title game will be held at the home venue of the highest remaining seed.

The first round on Friday pits the eighth-seeded Maine Black Bears against the ninth-seeded Hartford Hawks. These two teams split a pair of meetings during the regular season, and both of those contests were highly competitive. Hartford has won only six games all season and ranks last in the conference in both scoring offense (60.3 ppg) and scoring defense (70.5 ppg). The team has gotten dominated on the boards all season, as it is being outrebounded by nearly seven boards per contest. As for Maine, it closed out the season with four consecutive losses and figures to carry little confidence into this event. The Black Bears rank eighth in the nine-team league in turnover margin and have to take good care of the ball on Friday to advance.

The first of four quarterfinal games on Saturday the 7th pits the second- seeded Vermont Catamounts against the seventh-seeded Albany Great Danes. Albany lost seven of its last eight regular season games but did manage to beat Vermont in one of the two matchups between the teams. The Great Danes are the best free throw shooting team in the AEC and are also tops in the conference in rebounding margin, pulling down 8.4 rpg more than the opposition. Vermont is the league's top scoring team, as it is generating 77.8 ppg. Mike Trimboli (16.3 ppg), Marqus Blakely (15.7 ppg, 9.0 rpg) and Colin McIntosh (13.2 ppg) provide the Catamounts with a tremendous trio.

Third-seeded Boston University and sixth-seeded UMBC will battle in another quarterfinal clash. Boston University boasts the league's third and fourth leading scorers in John Holland and Corey Lowe, who are generating 18.0 ppg and 16.6 ppg, respectively. The Terrier, who beat UMBC in both regular season meetings, are knocking down a league-leading 8.8. three-pointers per contest and rely heavily on their perimeter shooting. As for UMBC, it has not played nearly as well as fans hoped heading into this campaign, but the team always has a chance to win thanks to the presence of Darryl Proctor (20.0 ppg). The Retrievers, by contrast with the Terriers, are last in the league in three- pointers made, as they are knocking down only 3.7 shots per contest from behind the arc.

The winner of the first-round game between Hartford and Maine will take on top-seeded Binghamton in the quarterfinal round. The Bearcats won a share of the regular season title for the first time in their 63 years of existence, a tremendous accomplishment for the program. The club is 20-8 overall and posted a 13-3 mark against AEC opposition, including wins in all four of its matchups with Hartford and Maine. D.J. Rivera is a gifted scorer who leads the conference with 20.2 ppg. Rivera's squad doesn't lead the AEC in an major statistical category, surprising for a top seed, but the Bearcats do most things well and simply know how to win.

The fourth and final matchup of the quarterfinal round pits the fourth-seeded New Hampshire Wildcats against the fifth-seeded Stony Brook Seawolves. New Hampshire did win both regular season matchups with Stony Brook, the most recent of which was decided by one point in overtime last week. The Wildcats are second in the conference in scoring defense but second to last in scoring offense. They are last in free throw percentage, a stat that is definitely concerning since this quarterfinal game figures to be close. As for Stony Brook, it is tops in the league in scoring defense, limiting opponents to 60.4 ppg. The Seawolves also lead the AEC in steals and turnover margin, but it remains to be seen if they will be able to generate enough offense to defeat the Wildcats.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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