Bucs Supporters Shouldn't Panic

Football Betting Lines

10/09/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - At this very moment, they're obsessing about the running back situation in Tampa Bay.

In the wake of a serious ankle injury suffered by Michael Pittman in Sunday's 33-14 loss to Indianapolis, fans are scanning the free agent wire, dreaming up intricate trade scenarios, making panic-stricken calls to local radio talk show hosts.

Media types are pointing to Pittman's injury, drawing a line from it to previous season-enders suffered by Cadillac Williams and Mike Alstott, and trotting out their doomsday scenarios.

Easy there.

Since when was this the Ground Chuck offense? Heck, this running game hasn't even run with anything resembling Martyball efficiency since Warrick Dunn left town.

Pittman was a nice third-down back who had proven long before he reached his current age of 32 that he couldn't deliver as an every-down player.

Williams had not seemed to regain his 2005 Rookie of the Year form at any point before tearing his ACL against Carolina in Week 4.

Alstott, whose career is likely over due to a neck problem, was never much of a factor in Gruden's offense anyway.

The offensive line that all of these backs would have run behind is a young, thin, work in progress.

So let's not pretend that the Buccaneers were ever going to ride their running game to a division crown and playoff glory. The situation for Tampa Bay remains the same as it ever was, and the fortunes for the 2007 edition of this team will continue to be about three similar-sounding words: Defense, defense, and defense.

It was that side of the ball that got Tampa Bay to 3-1 in the first place, and it is the department run by legendary coordinator Monte Kiffin that will need to play up to its dominant capabilities if the Bucs are to win the division, which frankly, they still should.

To be certain, the Buccaneers defense was not a strength in Sunday's loss, but that's no big deal.

Because you can't pressure him, Peyton Manning (29-of-37, 237 yards, 2 TD) carves up the Cover-2. Always has, always will. Gruden's team is not going to see another quarterback with anything resembling his skill set for the rest of 2007, so they can put their Week 5 loss away. The 121 rushing yards and two touchdowns someone named Kenton Keith rumbled for against the defense were simply a by-product of the focus on Manning and the passing game. Former Hardcastle and McCormick star Brian Keith could have run for 121 under those circumstances.

Moving forward, the defense will look more like the one that had its way with the Saints, Rams, and Panthers, than the one that struggled in Indianapolis.

Thanks to Manning, the Tampa Bay offense only had the ball for 21-plus minutes in Week 5, so you can't use that game as evidence that the lack of a running game has sunk the Buccaneers. Earnest Graham, who will now become the every- down ball-carrier, only got six carries (totaling 11 yards) because the Bucs fell into a 13-0 hole and were forced to try to pass their way out. Quarterback Jeff Garcia couldn't match Manning's production (who could?) but was an efficient 18-of-23 for 143 yards and capped off a couple of long drives with TD passes.

There is every reason to expect that this offense will run at a capable level over the next 11 games, even if it fails to score in bunches.

And let's face it, 9-7 will be enough to win an NFC South title in 2007, so it's not as if the Buccaneers (3-2) have to win out. New Orleans can't get out of its own way offensively, Carolina just turned its season over to the immortal David Carr, and Atlanta is quite possibly the worst team in the NFL.

Even if it's by default, the Buccaneers are still the team to beat in this division.

In other words, Bucs fans, you can come in off the ledge. Leeman Bennett is not coming back to town, and your prospects for '07 remain very much intact.

THE NEW NO. 2

The Buccaneers are expected to make a move to obtain a veteran back later this week, but until that player can learn the offense, the top two players on the depth chart at the position will be Graham and rookie Kenneth Darby.

Darby has made a meteoric and somewhat unlikely rise to prominence after being released when the team made its final cuts Sept. 1. Shortly after being dumped, the 2007 seventh-round draft pick out of Alabama was signed to the practice squad. He was moved to the 53-man roster after Williams was injured against the Panthers, and was active but did not play against Indianapolis last Sunday.

Darby, a 5-foot-10, 211-pound runner, received extensive action in the preseason when he posted team-highs in carries (33), yards (135), and rushing touchdowns (1). Darby also caught five passes for 36 yards out of the backfield.

The Huntsville, AL native is the third player in Alabama history to rush for more than 3,000 yards in a career (3,324), joining Shaun Alexander (3,565 yards, 1996-99) and Bobby Humphrey (3,420 yards, 1985-88).

STILL NO PICKS

Garcia couldn't lead the Bucs to a win on Sunday, but did manage to go interception-free for the eighth consecutive game dating back to last season. Garcia last threw a pick on Christmas night 2006, in a win for the Eagles over the Cowboys.

Of NFL quarterbacks to start every game for their team this season, only Garcia and Jacksonville's David Garrard have yet to fire an INT.

In his past two seasons, including a pair of playoff games, Garcia has 16 touchdown passes against just two interceptions.

NEXT UP: TENNESSEE

The Buccaneers will return home this week to try to get well against Vince Young and the 3-1 Tennessee Titans.

The Titans have a 7-1 edge in the all-time series with the Buccaneers, including a 33-13 home win when the teams last met, in 2003. Tennessee also won the most recent meeting between the squads in Tampa Bay, a 31-22 victory in 1998. The Bucs are 0-5 in the series since scoring their only win, at home against the then-Houston Oilers, in 1983.

Titans head coach Jeff Fisher is 4-0 in his career against the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers' Gruden is 0-3 all-time against both Fisher and Tennessee, including an 0-2 mark while with Oakland (1998-2001).

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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