Closing birdie saves Mickelson

Golf Betting Lines

07/16/2010 - St. Andrews, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With the wind picking up, the cut line will likely climb through Friday afternoon, and possibly into Saturday morning, at the British Open.

Phil Mickelson birdied the 18th hole Friday to post a one-under 71, which got him back to even-par for the championship.

He was lucky enough to finish his round before the wind really started blowing. Not long after Mickelson completed his round, play was suspended by high wind as golf balls were getting moved around on greens by the wind.

This is the first suspension due to high winds since the 1998 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale.

Mickelson had an inconsistent round with an eagle, three birdies and four bogeys, but his closing birdie all but guaranteed his spot in the field for the final two rounds.

"I've got to play better. I've got to go out and make some birdies tomorrow," Mickelson stated. "I also need some conditions to be able to do it and a little bit of luck for it to turn."

The Masters champion walked off the 18th green on the Old Course at St. Andrews tied for 68th place with the top 70 and ties slated for the weekend.

Mickelson opened his round with a birdie on the third. After a par on four, he rolled in an eagle putt at the par-five fifth to move to minus-two.

However, Mickelson saw his par-saving putt on the sixth lip out. He parred the next two holes, before converting a 15-footer for birdie on the ninth to turn in two-under.

On the back nine, Mickelson fought both the wind and his swing. He hit several drives out to the left and it cost him on the 12th. His drive stopped in high rough and behind some bleachers.

Mickelson chipped sideways, then pitched his third to about 30 feet. He two- putted for bogey. At the par-five 14th, Mickelson's par putt lipped out and that dropped him back to even-par for the championship.

After a pair of pars, Mickelson found the left rough off the tee at the Road Hole, No. 17. He was unable to reach the green with his second and walked off with another bogey that dropped him to plus-one overall.

Mickelson drove left of the 18th green and played his second to 10 feet. He rolled that in for a closing birdie to get back to minus-one for the day.

"I'm going to need some luck, I didn't play well these first two days," said Mickelson. "I have to go out tomorrow and have prefect conditions and play a great round, and then I need it to blow like this in the afternoon. I need some luck."

Mickelson has made the cut in 13 of his first 16 British Open appearances, but has just one top-10 finish in those 13 Opens. He took third in 2004 and his second-best finish came on the Old Course in 2000. Mickelson shared 11th that year, but he was 12 strokes behind Tiger Woods.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.