Santana, Garcia duel again in Mets-Cards clash

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07/28/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The last time St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Jamie Garcia faced New York Mets ace Johan Santana, the rookie was able to match the two- time Cy Young Award winner pitch-for-pitch.

He may find that to be more difficult tonight.

Garcia and Santana face off for the first time since St. Louis and New York engaged in a 20-inning marathon back in April when the two teams continue a three-game set tonight at Citi Field.

Santana threw seven scoreless innings of four-hit ball versus the Cardinals on April 17, walking just one batter while striking out nine. Garcia, in just his third career start and first against the Mets, was even better. The 24-year- old yielded just one hit and two walks over seven shutout innings.

Neither starter got a decision, though, as the Mets eventually won a 2-1 contest in 20 innings.

Garcia hasn't slowed down since that outing, going 9-4 with a 2.21 earned run average this season. The southpaw is 2-0 with a 1.99 ERA over his last four starts, giving up just a run on four hits and two walks while striking out six over seven innings of a victory over the Phillies last Wednesday.

Santana's outing versus the Cardinals, whom he is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA against lifetime, was part of a first half that saw him carry a 5-5 record and 3.55 ERA into July. However, the 31-year-old lefty is 3-0 with a 0.71 ERA in five starts this month, lowering his season ERA to 2.79.

His latest win came on Friday versus the Dodgers, with Santana giving up just a run on five hits over seven innings of work.

The Mets will turn to their ace tonight in the hopes of notching a second straight victory. New York returned home on Tuesday after a disastrous 2-9 road trip, but was able to hammer the Cardinals and Adam Wainwright for an 8-2 triumph.

Jeff Francoeur and Jose Reyes both homered as New York matched its run total from its previous four games combined. Carlos Beltran added two hits, an RBI and a run scored, while Jon Niese allowed a run over six-plus innings to get the victory.

The Mets won despite being without Jason Bay, who is sidelined due to concussion-like symptoms after crashing into the outfield wall in Friday's game with the Dodgers. Manager Jerry Manuel was also absent from Tuesday's opener as he served a one-game suspension for his actions on Friday in Los Angeles.

Entering the game with a 25-inning scoreless streak, Wainwright was tagged for a season-high six runs on six hits and three walks over five innings.

"Tonight was fun against a guy like Wainwright," Francoeur said afterward. "Facing him is not exactly the best way to get started after our road trip, but for us it was nice."

Ryan Ludwick drove in a run in the first inning and later scored for the Cardinals, who have lost four of five following an eight-game winning streak and fell into a virtual tie with Cincinnati for first place in the National League Central.

The Cardinals won two of three at home over the Mets from April 16-18, but lost four of six at Citi Field a season ago.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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